Andrea S. James

Category: Inspiration

  • Why I won’t be on the Tesla call tonight

    Tesla Motors reports its quarterly earnings this evening, and for the first time in 21 quarters, I will not be on the call asking Elon Musk & crew a question.

    As of May 2016, I am stepping back from day to day coverage of Tesla Motors. I’ll remain affiliated with my firm as an advisory analyst and will be working behind the scenes with my analyst replacement.

    Here’s why.

    My office has a sloping ceiling, and on the slant just within my gaze are large stenciled numbers: 2061. That is the year that my life expectancy runs out, based on a typical aged 34 female. I rarely share this fact because it sounds a bit disturbing and morbid.

    But for me, it provides focus.

    I work better with a deadline.

    And I feel strongly that my work as a stock analyst is done and it is time for me to move on to other things.

    I am launching my own executive / professional coaching business, Solve for X Coaching, where I will work with executives and mid-career professionals on life transition and communication & leadership style.

    Being a Wall Street stock analyst on Tesla Motors (TSLA) shares from 2010 to 2016 has greatly enriched my life and understanding of the world. I took pride in the depth of my analysis and research — I always started from a position of skepticism and asking, “Where could Tesla go wrong?” But early on, it became clear that the bigger question — the world changing one — was, “Where could Tesla go right?”

    My firm gave me the opportunity to call the truth on Tesla as I see it. And we get to that truth by analyzing the following three questions, at their simplest: Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?

    Answering those questions took me on a journey into researching battery pack manufacturing, touring battery manufacturing competitors, creating relationships with suppliers, and constantly talking with industry. My financial model, which I built from scratch, modeled out Tesla revenue and expenses for the next several years at a granular level — even at some points analyzing the costs of a lithium-ion battery down to the cathode, anode, electrolyte and separator. I have written volumes of research for Wall Street clients addressing Tesla-related topics. Unfortunately, that research is not available to the general public and was shared only with firm clients.

    Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?

    Yes, yes and yes.

    The quarterly earnings conference calls were just a small part of my research on Tesla, but they were usually fun and productive. I have helped to generate some informative conversations with CEO Elon Musk, CTO JB Straubel and the rest of the Tesla team over the years — my questions have unearthed the Gigafactory plans, whether Tesla really needs to produce the Model X, and whether, given constraints, Tesla would build batteries for electric cars or solar storage. I’ll truly miss that part of the job.

    As an independent third-party analyst, I’ve always been prohibited from personally buying the stock. I can’t wait to buy in.

    May the 4th be with us.

    Onward.

  • Can we treat life like an engineering problem? In many ways – yes

    Did you ever notice how people are always solving for something?

    Successful people are constantly solving for X.

    And X can be lots of things — more time to pursue one’s passions, it can be more money, it can be negotiating a raise, it can be finding more meaning out of one’s career.

    From more than a decade experience as a financial journalist and a Wall Street stock analyst on tech companies, I’ve come to believe in the power of solving for X.

    If you’re reading this page, you might be what I call an “optimizer.” Satisfied with some parts of life, but always optimizing a part, always engineering a fix. I know the type because I am one!

    Two of the most common constraints on modern life are money and time — we often find ourselves solving for one. Some leaders want to be better communicators. Maybe you have a novel in you, but you don’t know where to start.

    Burnout, disorganization and stuckness are not inevitable — we can solve for those, too.

    As a professional coach, I come alongside you to support you and help you make sense of all the moving parts when you’re solving for X.

    It is helpful to talk with someone who doesn’t have a stake in the outcome. I want to see you be a success, however you define it. Particularly in times of transition, it helps to work with a coach.

    This life is all we’ve got. Professional coaching can help you to move into a dynamic career that you love, to be your best self and to live your best life. Let’s give it our best shot.

    …Solve for X coaching services and blog content — coming soon …

  • A new twist on the bucket list

    Do you have a bucket list? That is, a list of things you’d like to accomplish before you kick the bucket?

    I never created one for myself — the truth is, my reverse-bucket-list is a lot more spectacular than any list I would’ve come up with 10 years ago. A reverse-bucket-list names what you’ve already experienced or accomplished. (If you’re curious, my list is here.)

    It’s a fun list. And I imagine many people reading this blog would list incredible things about themselves. Things that I’d love to hear you tell me about over a drink or coffee. Experiences made possible by expanded opportunities for women and minorities and commoditized air travel, things that folks born two generations ago might not have imagined. (My father, born in 1921, did see much of the world during World War II, though it was via Navy submarine and it wasn’t a pleasure trip. My mother barely left the tri-state area.)

    The next step, my goal for 2012, is not to necessarily to have more adventures. (Though, I’d rarely turn one down.) The next step is to foster something that a fast-paced lifestyle, born out in a digital age, has made scarce: Community.

    Rather than using my spare resources (ie: money and time) to stack up concert tickets and passport stamps and fitness goals like poker chips, my goal is to strive for more in-person connection. To savor face-to-face conversations and tactile shared experiences.

    I think we could all use a little more community.

    Wishing you many blessings in 2012.

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  • Got my new (ugly) running shoes on

    I finally did it.

    I bought some five-finger minimalist running shoes. My goodness they are ugly.

    Vibram fivefinger running shoes
    Looking down at my new Vibram five-finger running shoes.

    Have you ever seen anyone wearing these? It’s a startling realization when you do.

    A family member of mine wore them all around Ireland on my recent vacation. Every time I saw his feet poking out from beneath his jeans, I nearly screamed of fright.

    Ack! Gorilla feet! It’s just not right, people!

    He told me that he loved being able to feel the different textures of the ground as he walked. He was a tourist down to his toes. That’s the first thing that piqued my interest.

    And while I wish I could say that ligament health or some technical reason was my final impetus for buying my own five-fingers, the truth is that my favorite method of exercise is running, I travel a lot for work and my bulky Nike sneakers took up too much room in my carry-on suitcase.

    My five-fingers came from REI’s Seattle flagship store. The sales staff there knew more about five-fingers than I knew could be known, and helped me to pick out a suitable set.

    When I lived down south, I used to run barefoot along the Perdido nature preserve on the Gulf Coast. Those runs were some of the most liberating of my life. Imagine turquoise waves, a white sand beach, Alabama-blue skies, a swamp off to the left with alligators, an oil rig in the distance and virtually zero people.

    I’ve captured some of that feeling again. Running with five-fingers is almost like running barefoot on soft sand.

    Somewhere along the line, I had become convinced that “ample support” was the most important thing in a running shoe. And, I now believe that is not true.

    I never realized how much that big chunk of rubber around my heel — the more the better, I used to think — got in my way. Traditional running sneakers treat your feet and ankles as delicate baby birds, unable to support your body without a protective nest.

    But my new shoes have liberated my feet from the sneaker-man, who was keeping them down. My five-fingers have turned my rough and painful slogs up Seattle’s steep hills into a more graceful prance. I feel lighter, bounding upward like a gazelle.

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  • We love consistency but need change: Voila, the seasons

    My old alarm clock went off this morning before my mobile phone did. That’s odd, I thought as I scrambled over to shut the thing up.

    The dumb alarm clock — as in, not smart like my phone — is the backup alarm, the one that will faithfully and annoyingly beep at me at 3:30 a.m. no matter what, and has zero risk of downloading a faulty software upgrade at midnight.

    Why didn’t my mobile phone wake me first, as it was programmed to? And then I realized: It’s an hour earlier than I thought. My mobile phone knew that today was time change day. And so did all of my laptops.

    I was left to marvel at two things.

    1) My time-keeping technology can be broken down into smart and dumb depending upon whether they know to adjust the time. (Darn you microwave!)

    2) Does it amaze you that nearly all of American society adjusts the time by one hour twice per year? And the fact that a couple of states have chosen to opt out makes it even more hilarious.

    Can you imagine how this would appear to an outsider? Humans are such kooks.

    It’s kind of whimsical though — so much of America has been homogenized for maximum efficiency. This is a ridiculous tradition that continues because we lack the ability to fight the inertia to change it.

    Season changes are delightful. The time change is silly, but somewhat delightful in its whimsy — an aberration more reliable than a snow day. They remind me of this passage from C.S. Lewis’s “The Screwtape Letters.”

    Here, one of the devil’s minions is educating a junior minion about human kind. Their purpose is to destroy joy and promote anguish, but to do so, the junior minion must first understand how humans are created. In the context of this book, “the Enemy” is God.

    The horror of the Same Old Thing is one of the most valuable passions we have produced in the human heart — an endless source of heresies in religion, folly in counsel, infidelity in marriage, and inconstancy in friendship. The humans live in time, and experience reality successively. To experience much of it, therefore, they must experience many different things; in other words, they must experience change. And since they need change, the Enemy (being a hedonist at heart) has made change pleasurable to them, just as He has made eating pleasurable. But since He does not wish them to make change, any more than eating, an end it itself, He has balanced the love of change in them by a love of permanence. He has contrived to gratify both tastes together in the very world He has made, by that union of change and permanence which we call Rhythm. He gives them the seasons, each season different yet every year the same, so that spring is always felt as a novelty yet always as the recurrence of an immemorial theme.

    . . . If we neglect our duty, men will not be only contented but transported by the mixed novelty and familiarity of snowdrops this January, sunrise this morning, plum pudding this Christmas. Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeed hopscotch as regularly as autumn follows summer.

    May we never get so tired of life that the seasonal changes fail to delight us.

    Organic pumpkin farmOrganic pumpkin farmCupcake Royale in BallardLost in the leaves
    (This post is filled with photos taken by me in the past month in Seattle and its environs. Click any photo to see a larger version.)

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  • Simplicity gains momentum, but at what cost?

    Simplicity is all the rage right now. And in so many walks of life, too.

    Do you ever wonder why? Why do we want to pare down, cut back, sift out, and reduce to the essentials?

    The world is no more complex than it’s ever been. The difference is that, thanks to the information revolution, we see the complexity now.

    The popularity of simplicity as a life priority is a pushing back against the abundance of information, of pressure and of stuff that is foisted upon us without our permission.

    Simplicity is cheaper, less risky and many times, safer. The financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 can be boiled down as being caused by Too Much.

    Too much borrowing. Too much risk. Too much house. Too much commute. Too much mortgage. Too much debt. Too much stuff.

    But the metaphor extends.

    Medicine: One of the worst diseases that we can’t seem to lick, cancer, is a disease of too much cell growth, rather than an illness where something lacks.

    From Siddhartha Mukherjee’s “The Emperor of All Maladies,”

    We tend to think of cancer as a “modern” illness because its metaphors are so modern. It is a disease of overproduction, of fulminant growth – growth unstoppable, growth tipped into the abyss of no control . . . If consumption once killed its victims by pathological evisceration (the tuberculosis bacillus gradually hollows out the lung), then cancer asphyxiates us by filling bodies with too many cells; it is consumption in its alternate meaning — the pathology of excess.

    Writing & self-expression: Twitter limits our words to 140 characters, giving us permission to be brief. Information flows through Twitter like molecules through water, shifting, fluid and flowing.

    The messages are simple, though they themselves are great in number, thus creating a complex system of simple parts. I treat Twitter like water, diving in, soaking it up and getting out as soon as the simplicity starts to feel complex.

    Because our thoughts are easier-than-ever to share, they are abundant, and the backlash is the pressure to make each word count.

    Food: Cooking trends favor fewer ingredients, letting natural flavors stand alone, rather than complicated processes and mixes.

    What’s the opposite of simple food? From Adam Gopnik’s “Paris to the Moon”

    The recipe is for a timbale des homards. You take three lobsters, season them with salt and pepper and a little curry, saute them in a light mirepoix – a mixture of chopped onions and carrots – and then simmer them with cognac, port, double cream, and fish stock for twenty minutes. Then you take out the lobsters and, keeeping them warm, reduce the cooking liquid and add two egg yolks and 150 grams of sweet butter.

    Definitely too much.

    Technology: For years, technology advanced by getting more complicated. But end-users don’t care for more buttons, more options, more menus and more screens. As complicated as the behind-the-scenes programming and hardware may be, the end result should be simple.

    This was part of the genius of Apple’s products. Do you remember that relief you felt when you first learned that the iPod didn’t come with a thick instruction manual?

    Garmin even recently came out with an advanced GPS running watch that was simpler than prior versions.

    Research: A national intelligence leader said recently that the most important commodity in Washington is not information, it’s time.

    Synthesizing information — telling us not just what and who, but why and how — is more valuable than a deluge of data.

    Another story: In college, I took a fascinating course that combined teachings on philosophy with artificial intelligence. One overnight assignment was to write a paper about brain synapses and the challenges of replicating brain function using computer processors.

    At that time, I was learning to appreciate the genius of brevity. I submitted a four-page report.

    I got it back. “D”

    Horrified. The professor, visiting from Oxford, explained that my paper was too short. “You’re an American. It’s not your fault you can’t write,” he said sympathetically.

    All of the other students in the honors colloquium had submitted 16-and 20-page papers. (Bachelors of the arts types = show offs.)

    He let me rewrite. And so, I embellished. If a point could be made in one sentence, I took five. I turned four pages into 12 — four pages of solid information and eight pages of, well, bullshit. It was now an “A” paper.

    Today, I think that a situation like that would play out dramatically differently.

    Today, everyone wants the executive summary.

    Conclusion:

    I’m still figuring out where I shake out on the simplicity continuum.

    In politics, the dedication to simplicity of message – talking points – ends up eliminating nuance. And life has more gray that many of us want to tolerate, but that doesn’t mean there’s no value in exploring it. Truth rests in nuance. The truth is below the headline.

    So much of the backlash against faith, and maybe even God, comes from simple interpretations of the Bible, black-and-white rules that leave whole groups of people feeling excluded. Even in the faith community itself, I see a lot of disagreement that can be boiled down to arguments of simplicity versus complexity. (Theme alert: I just took a complex issue: interpretations of faith, and boiled it down to A versus B. Like that?) I tend to think that matters of faith and God are more complex than simple.

    At the opposite end, I find it inherently satisfying to boil things down to the essentials. So far as the trend toward simplicity eliminates bullshit and bureaucracy, I’m for it.

    And on a personal level, I’ve found that by cutting out what I don’t need, my life is more open to the people and relationships that I do.

    Wisdom is often simple. Perhaps simplicity is at its best when it enhances knowledge and wisdom, and at its worst when it dumbs down and obscures.

    As English Franciscan philosopher William Ockham put it, sometimes simplest is best.

    I apologize for a complex post on simplicity — a complex topic, no? — and I welcome your thoughts!

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  • A gift to humanity

    I believe that great people are God’s gift to us.

    Every once in a while, people come along who advance our understanding of math, science and technology. Great minds whose genius changes our lives for the better.

    Sir Isaac Newton. Albert Einstein. Bill Gates.

    Steve Jobs.

    Jobs died today. A bright light has gone out.

    And people are mourning en masse. That’s how you know he was special, a gift to humanity. And you know what? That’s beautiful.

    We mourn when we lose public figures. They are a part of us. And no less so was Steve Jobs.

    He made the most of his time here on earth. His contributions changed how we live.

    I love that people are putting flowers at Apple headquarters.

    Thank you, Steve.

    — ### —

    Previous related post:

    Have you thought about death today?

  • Simple life lessons: Following a leadership pattern

    It’s not easy being out in front.

    I first learned this when I did investigative reporting. Even though I knew my information was sound and that my story was true, I got a nervous feeling in my stomach the night before the newspaper published a scoop. Because I knew that no one else had the information, I knew that it would surprise people, I knew humanity’s tendency to blame the messenger, and I knew that extra attention can be exciting but it is also deeply stressful.

    The thing is though, someone has got to lead. Why not me? Why not you? Why not my company? Why not yours?

    But there’s truth to the other side too — someone has got to follow. And there can be honor in following. A considered life will have periods of both.

    Three kitchen-table anecdotes illustrate my point:

    • 1) Ice Cream Shop

    Opening up an ice cream shop in my neighborhood seems like a no-brainer strategy. My neighborhood is filled with kids and playgrounds and affluent families.  And yet, we didn’t have an ice cream shop for years.

    Last year, Menchies opened a buffet-style frozen yogurt shop on the main thoroughfare. The place is crowded day and night. That was smart. Why didn’t anyone think of it sooner?

    This year, Molly Moon’s opened another ice cream shop, blocks away.

    Now I’m thinking the market might be saturated. But hat’s off to the two businesses that had the idea first. They’re already capturing some of my dollars.

    Lesson: Just because no one else has done it before doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea and won’t work. It may just mean that no one else has had the moxie to try.

    • 2) The Highway

    Recently, I was driving on a three-lane highway, heading for Detroit airport. I had six miles to go until the turn-off to drop off my rental car.

    The speed limit was 75. I noticed that the left two lanes were empty, but there was a line of cars doing 60 miles per hour in the right-most lane.

    Wow. Talk about a bunch of lazy followers! I decided to join them.

    For me, it was one of those rare instances when I wasn’t in a rush, and so I decided to blast my radio and get in line. So long as I maintained a safe distance from the car in front, I didn’t have to really think. It was so easy – I didn’t have to monitor my speed, merge lanes, time my lane shift, pass with care – less thinking, more singing to the radio.

    Lesson: People follow for different reasons, and sometimes, it’s nice to get in line and do your part.

    • 3) The Airport

    This continues from the last story. I finally got to the security check point and there was a huge, messy line that was longer than the lanes delineated by the retractable tape barriers.

    Photo from inside Detroit Airport, showing a fountain and a 747 airplane.
    A view from inside Detroit Airport (DTW).

    And there was a sign that announced: “Additional security check point up one level.”

    About three feet to my left was the escalator. I thought, “That entrance is probably stuffed too. And if I leave to go look, I’ll lose my spot.”

    Then, remembering back to all of us sheeple in the highway lanes, I decide to check it out.

    No lie: There were only about five people in the line immediately up the stairs. All this time opportunity, and people were not seizing upon it!

    Lesson: I work with stocks. This to me is symbolic of how markets are not always perfectly efficient — there is opportunity out there, if you think to seize it. But, it carries risk. Same with life. While forging ahead, you could lose your place in the line. But, the line will always be there waiting to take you back – so why not try?

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  • Are you secretly good at math? Five more clues

    One of the most popular posts on this blog is one from October 2010: Maybe you are good at math and never knew it.

    People get to it by searching all kinds of math-related anxiety phrases, such as “will I ever be good at math?,” “why am I not good at math?” and even some folks in the international crowd, who say, “I want to be good at maths.”

    You may never read calculus books for fun, but you’re probably better at math than you think.

    The original post was intended as inspiration. And here’s some more. Five clues that you could be good at math:

    • 1) You can measure.
    Counting cookies

    My mother, born in 1927, did not complete her high school education. Yet, she could convert recipes – doubling them, multiplying them by one-and-one-half with ease.

    If a recipe calls for two cups (8 ounces) of water, and she were slightly increasing the recipe to 1.5 times, she’d put in three cups, or 12 ounces.

    Hat tip to all the coffee baristas working with math every day.

    • 2) You can automatically do base-12 math. Wait! Don’t stop reading!

    Most of the numbers the average person works with are on the base 10-system; this includes counting cookies and dealing with money.

    An astronomical clock. Astronomy doesn't have much practical use, but it's pretty to look at.

    But, time is on a base-12 system. And it’s a beautiful system because it can be so easily quartered.

    I bet that you move seamlessly between the two systems all the time without even realizing it.

    This is huge. Your brain, FTW.

    Don’t believe me? Here’s a simple example:

    Say you have 75 cents in your pocket. Someone says, “I have double that.” You might automatically know that 75 cents, doubled, is $1.50. Similarly, three-quarters and three-quarters is one-and-one-half. Or, 75% + 75% is 150%.

    That’s all base-10 math and you do it all the time.

    Now, say you want to microwave something for one minute and 30 seconds. You put it in the microwave. It starts counting down. A few seconds later you realize, “Hey, there’s half the food on my plate as usual. I only want to microwave half that time.”

    What is half of one-minute-and-a-half? Do you stop the microwave after 45 seconds? If so, congratulations — without even realizing it, you knew that on the base-12 system, 45 seconds is three-quarters, the same as 75 cents on the base-10 system.

    If someone says, “I’ll be there in 90 minutes,” do you automatically know that that is one-and-one-half hours? Congratulations, you can do simple base-12 math calculations, which is almost like thinking in a foreign language.

    On a base 12 system, 1:30 (one minute and thirty seconds, or one hour and thirty minutes) is the same as 1.5 on the base 10 system.

    • 3) You budget your money well.

    Not everyone can do this, but some of us are instinctive about when our spending drifts up. That means that we are doing instinctive math. It is in our head.

    Without using a calculator, or a pen or pencil, my father could estimate his grocery bill pretty accurately when he got to the check out. It may not be rocket science, but he had a head for numbers.

    • 4) You don’t bump your car (or bicycle) into things.

    Spatial awareness is a beautiful thing. (I lack it, sadly, which is why the side of my car is scratched and why my mirrors are busted. To all the good women drivers, I’m sorry for pulling down the average.)

    Warning sign: Drive on the left
    The folks at Hertz wanted to make it really clear.

    I’ve met people who claim to not be good at math but who have excellent spatial awareness.

    During my recent vacation in Ireland, we rented two cars and two brave members of the family drove the cars on the left. I was in the second car, and so I could watch as my mother-in-law’s brain adjusted to the new dynamic. At first, she was hugging the left side of the road, but she gradually began to own her lane and operated the car like a pro.

    Brilliant!

    I don’t think I could have done it — I walk into walls in broad daylight.

    What does spatial awareness have to do with math? It is a building block for understanding geometry.

    • 5) You can calculate a tip in seconds

    In the United States, standard rates for tipping at restaurants is 15% to 20%.

    Without fail, I tip 20%. I like to think it’s because I’m generous, but I also think that it’s faster to do the calculation that way. On a double-digit bill, I’m less likely to screw up if I just double the leftmost digit.

    Say the bill is $50. Then a 20% tip is easy – just double the five, which is the leftmost digit. A $10 tip is 20% of a $50 bill.

    It takes another step to do a 15% tip. You have to take $50, divide by 10, for $5, then add half, $2.50, for a total of $7.50. Too much thinking.

    And the waiter is better off too. Win win.

     

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  • A tribute to biology, which bugs me

    This post is an ode to the health care workers — doctors, nurses, lab researchers and scientists.

    I salute you.

    Because biology has got to be the most infuriating of the basic sciences. And I don’t know how you work each day with the maddening messiness of organisms. It has got to be like dealing with derivative instruments each and every day, only with blood and needles involved.

    After spending some time with a friend on chemotherapy, and reading “The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer,” I’ve been thinking a lot about matters of the body.

    My adult world has been one of computer code, words, numbers, math, physics, money, finance, accounting, business, technology, satellites. It’s all about efficiency and accuracy.

    And biology is all so . . . nebulous. Organic. Messy.

    As a reporter, I remember once touring a bio-tech lab in Bothell, Wa., where a company was working on a new treatment for a particular blood-circulation malady. The chief executive of the company told me that the treatment may work on more than half of patients — and that would represent fantastic odds.

    What? Why wouldn’t it work with everyone? There were math and chemistry formulas all over the place, on every available surface. How come sometimes A = B and other times, A = C, but B does not always equal C, but sometimes it does. How does that make logical sense?

    And scientists in this world just accept this without going mad. Amazing.

    Even the stock market, with all of its dizzying weariness, opens every day at 9:30 a.m. ET and closes at 4 p.m. Chaos with time parameters!

    Try telling the human body that you have a deadline. That you have someplace to be. That your Outlook Calendar has sent a 15-minute reminder and you’ve got to get going.

    I studied computers and physics in college and the practical application of those disciplines is normally always a predictable outcome. (Physics does become a discourse on probabilities at the quantum level, but for the sake of argument, when applied practically, Earthbound Newtonian physics adheres to unbreakable laws.)

    A basic element of computer coding is the If / Then statement.

    It looks like this:

    IF A=B

    THEN:

    DO this;

    ELSE:

    DO that;

    END.

    It’s so simple. It’s boolean. It’s either-or. True or false. One or zero. On or off.

    Biology? What a mess. Is it any wonder that health care is difficult to figure out on a societal level? That care standards vary and that a dollar here doesn’t go as far as a dollar there?

    Sometimes, I wonder if the desire for government to just take over health care – pay for all of it, handle all of it – has less to do with economics and more to do with people’s frustration and fear over the messiness of the process, the bills, the lab tests, the lack of instant gratification and the unpredictability of it all.

    Hat’s off to you, biology workers. You are way more comfortable with random outcomes than I could ever be.

    Life is messy and you’re not afraid to get your hands dirty.

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