Tesla Motors reports its quarterly earnings this evening, and for the first time in 21 quarters, I will not be on the call asking Elon Musk & crew a question.
As of May 2016, I am stepping back from day to day coverage of Tesla Motors. I’ll remain affiliated with my firm as an advisory analyst and will be working behind the scenes with my analyst replacement.
Here’s why.
My office has a sloping ceiling, and on the slant just within my gaze are large stenciled numbers: 2061. That is the year that my life expectancy runs out, based on a typical aged 34 female. I rarely share this fact because it sounds a bit disturbing and morbid.
But for me, it provides focus.
I work better with a deadline.
And I feel strongly that my work as a stock analyst is done and it is time for me to move on to other things.
I am launching my own executive / professional coaching business, Solve for X Coaching, where I will work with executives and mid-career professionals on life transition and communication & leadership style.
Being a Wall Street stock analyst on Tesla Motors (TSLA) shares from 2010 to 2016 has greatly enriched my life and understanding of the world. I took pride in the depth of my analysis and research — I always started from a position of skepticism and asking, “Where could Tesla go wrong?” But early on, it became clear that the bigger question — the world changing one — was, “Where could Tesla go right?”
My firm gave me the opportunity to call the truth on Tesla as I see it. And we get to that truth by analyzing the following three questions, at their simplest: Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?
Answering those questions took me on a journey into researching battery pack manufacturing, touring battery manufacturing competitors, creating relationships with suppliers, and constantly talking with industry. My financial model, which I built from scratch, modeled out Tesla revenue and expenses for the next several years at a granular level — even at some points analyzing the costs of a lithium-ion battery down to the cathode, anode, electrolyte and separator. I have written volumes of research for Wall Street clients addressing Tesla-related topics. Unfortunately, that research is not available to the general public and was shared only with firm clients.
Does Tesla have a technology lead that is real? Can Tesla build it? Will people come?
Yes, yes and yes.
The quarterly earnings conference calls were just a small part of my research on Tesla, but they were usually fun and productive. I have helped to generate some informative conversations with CEO Elon Musk, CTO JB Straubel and the rest of the Tesla team over the years — my questions have unearthed the Gigafactory plans, whether Tesla really needs to produce the Model X, and whether, given constraints, Tesla would build batteries for electric cars or solar storage. I’ll truly miss that part of the job.
As an independent third-party analyst, I’ve always been prohibited from personally buying the stock. I can’t wait to buy in.
May the 4th be with us.
Onward.
You will be greatly missed! Every time I had a question about Tesla I googled your name and read what you had to say first! Thank you for your invaluable reports and analysis. And I have to say: you are by far the most eloquent analyst. Everything you write is so beautifully written-including your touching farewell. My all time favorite report will always be the one after the Model 3 preorder/unveil where you state: ‘Elon Musk didn’t drop the mic and walk away–but he could have.’ Thanks for helping Tesla go right. Welcome to the $TSLA investors club!
Thank you, Amy, for your lovely comment and thank you for being my first comment! 🙂 You made me smile!
Andrea,
Sorry to see you go. You were the most stupid of a large group of fawning, credulous and unprofessional group of lapdogs.
I approved this comment to give others a small taste of the kind of hate mail I’ve gotten over the years. Thank you for not being the worst of it and not insulting my sexuality and gender, and not threatening physical harm for my family causing me to file a police report. …You win for being the kindest of the haters!
Andrea,
That is very sad that that is the kindest hate comment.
You will be missed here, but, now, you get to invest and to know that you own a part of the future. 🙂
And hopefully, those that have sent hate mails to you, lose your address and their interest.
Andrea, after reading your reply to Bill i think I just fell a tiny bit in love with you 😉 (in the least possible creepy way, of course)
Andrea,
A large number of us on the teslamotorsclub.com investor forum consider you to be a rock star. Best wishes with your new pursuit and feel free to check in with the gang online someday!
Thank you! I always followed your posts on the TMC forums. My compliance department never let me contribute there, or to any other message boards!
Would you mind coming to the investor sub-forum under Tesla Motors Club? 🙂
Thanks for the invitation! 🙂 That becomes an option for me after I’ve formally left my current role. Our compliance department is quite strict and stock analysts work under a lot of regulations and rules about what we’re allowed to say in any public forums.
There are many times I’d like to weigh in, believe me. Also, the high-level media summaries of my published research often did not do justice to the depth of analysis actually presented to Wall Street investor clients.
Echoing Amy’s sentiments, you will be missed by many. You have fans at the Tesla Motors Club forums and we were waiting then wondering where you were on the call today. Having researched EV’s and Tesla for years it was often frustrating to see so many in the market and media get it wrong, but equally satisfying to see you get it right. Good luck on the new career path.
Thank you!
Thank you for being diligent and credible. I think you contributed materially to Tesla’s success.
Thank you, that means a lot. Looking back over the years and at my approach, I am grateful to have been a tiny COG in the very big wheel that is Tesla.
Come on Andrea , we depend on you, we will greatly miss you.
Good fortune in your next career.
Farewell and Godspeed
Thank you. 🙂
The “Where is Andrea James?” comments were flying on the TMC forum this afternoon for the CC. So, you were indeed missed. Good luck with your future venture. Takes guts.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1517459/
Aww, thanks for the link. I wrote this post with y’all in mind.
Andrea, I’ve walked most of that journey with you over the past 21 quarters and I am honestly really sorry to see you go.
You probably know this, but you are a favorite of ours over on the TMC forums and have been for several years. I’m sure I speak for the majority when I say that we have always been impressed with the depth of your knowledge and especially the quality of your questions. Your absence did not go unnoticed this evening.
Thanks for everything you have done for the investment community over the years. I wish you all the best in this next chapter of your life.
Thank you so much! Isn’t it crazy and funny how the Tesla earnings calls have become an event in and of themselves?
I’ve always enjoyed your analysis and loved your Model X test drive video. Good luck in your future endeavors, and maybe if you get the itch, you could update here on thoughts on new developments occasionally.
Also, if you’re ever in Buffalo, NY, wings are on me 🙂
Sweet – thanks! I love Buffalo wings! I’ll be blogging here regularly because I love writing and thinking about the interplay of life, money, business, vocation, wellness, family and capital flow.
Hello Andrea,
I am sure you will be missed on the earnings calls and CNBC segments. I am glad you can finally get to trade now. Whenever they got to you on conference calls I always said in my head, “finally!” You were very different from the other analysts because you didn’t solely rely on assumptions that were so far out and what the DCF model told you for valuation. The holistic and big picture view on this type of business is incredibly important and I am glad you were there to remind people of that. I do also want to thank you for providing the positive outlook on Tesla and want to wish you the best of luck on your new venture.
Thank you, Ted. 🙂
Best analyst ever. Your work was appreciated by many. Best of luck to you.
Thank you, Mike. 🙂
Really appreciated your questions over the years. Today, during the CC, I asked myself, “Where is she?!” and now I see this! Such a shame. Always enjoyed reading/listening to what you had to say.
Thank you, Jay.
I’ve been a stockholder for a long time and only recently have been reading everything on the Tesla Motors Club site. Many people there are represented here in praise for you. It is widespread and fully deserved by many more who are also true professionals at the top of their game as are you. Best of luck in all things.
Thank you!!
2044 got ya beat?. Andrea, in an industry driven by agendas, you have been a breath of integrity that should both admired and mirrored by your former peers. My wife and I have been on board since shortly after the IPO and have read and listened to your observations with great interest. As my industry had many setbacks that changed the trajectory of our retirement, TSLA offered the “Hail Mary” pass opportunity of a lifetime that was advised against by everyone (emphasis added). Your commentary and research lead to our ability to sleep while our retirement trajectory reset to “on track”. Your questions and objectivity will be missed going forward. We wish great continued success for you and hope that in addition to being able to buy TSLA you will indulge yourself by owning the finest transportation yet. Hope you got an early III rez?!
Dave & Colene
Thank you, this means a lot to me. I didn’t realize that the research had an impact on individual investors. Your comment is a gift to me while I take a big personal risk. Thank you!
You are, bar none, the best analyst that has covered Tesla on their CC. You will be sorely missed. Godspeed on your next adventure.
Thank you!!
Andrea! What an awesome transition you’re making. This resonates with my own personality so much. I left the sell side just over 5 years ago, so I was only a little bit older than you are now when I left. I had 2 young daughters and I was not thrilled with how often I missed dinner and how every single day I was gone before they even crawled out of bed. The sell side was an awesome + fun career for almost 11 years for me. But it was time to move on and I have never enjoyed life more. I wish the same for you.
I always appreciated your long term thinking when you wrote about Tesla. When I learned about investing (~age 21) I was heavily influenced to ignore day to day and quarter to quarter stuff. The best CEOs I spent time with were the ones who understood this. Sadly, most of Wall Street doesn’t understand this. How could they? It goes against the business model design of the entire industry.
You’ll have so much more fun coaching executives and helping them to manage their emotions, stay calm, prepare better for events, etc.
Anyway – DM me on Twitter or email me assuming you can see the email addy behind this comment. I have something for you related to this major life transition. Probably not what you’re expecting but I know from reading this post that you’ll get a ton of value from it.
Chris
You get it. The sell side is rewarding in terms of what you learn and how you grow and how deep you get to go on topics, but the cost is every second of one’s free time. I have very little life outside of my job and I’m looking forward to having a little bit more margin in my schedule. I’ve added chrisumiastowski.com to my RSS!
Congratulations Andrea! Your well thought out, balanced and rational analysis, especially concerning Tesla, will be very missed, but I know you will be blessed in your new career and you will make a very real and significant impact coaching and helping people align themselves with their values and their giftings. All the best! Can’t wait to see what the future brings you.
Can you post your Tesla financial model spreadsheet on google docs? I mean, since you don’t need it anymore. 🙂
Thanks for sharing this, I’ve been following you and the Tesla Motors earning calls for the last 3 years. Good luck for your new journey, and welcome to the world of TSLA owners.
-Simone
I couldn’t be prouder of you, Andrea. You’ve always been one of the most courageous and driven young women I know. This next step shows that in spades. Congratulations on your new venture. I can’t wait to see what you do with it!
With love from NC.
Andrea, I greatly appreciate your time on Tesla (Tesla time?…) . I am a young individual investor at 26 and I want to give thanks for your insightful questions and analysis which have helped give me confidence and clarification in my own Tesla thesis. There have been times when I have listened to earnings calls with friends and I would always tell them to listen up when Andrea James was on the line because she asked the best questions. You will be missed, and I can not echo the sentiment enough that I hope to see you in the TMC investor forum in the near future when your role allows for it. Thanks. -Rob
Andrea, you will be missed, I’ve very much appreciated your analysis on Tesla over the years. I’m reminded of one of your best calls, in my opinion, when in 2013 you called for $200 price target before it made that monster move up:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/021adcfb-e8be-401a-be6b-e0aa886e09c9
All the best to you in your new endeavors, hope the business is a fantastic success!
Awesome video from the past! Having followed Tesla and invested in it too from its IPO days, I somehow missed Andrea’s research notes.. Was too busy heading butts against John Petersen on Seeking Alpha at the time.. But I called $200 independently same time as well 🙂
Thank you guys for your comments and for the link to that old clip! In all honesty, I remember doing that particular segment but at the same time, I’d forgotten the details of the questions and answers. These were some fun times!
See how far you have come. You took a new job without asking for my advice. Good luck
Hello ANDREA … I have followed Tesla for five years but have come to the conclusion that you had the best research. I bough tsla at 211 a couple of days ago, it got beaten down today . Do you think it can go past 300 soon. Can you please give your valuable opinion. It will help me. thanks
Hey Andrea from the future.
I hope you bought a ton of Tesla shares.
Pre-split the stock is at $4000 now.
Andrea,
Thank you for very much for your insight, helps tons of investors on Tesla. I enjoy your comments. Good luck with your life journey!
Blessings,
SM
Andrea,
I’ve just found you and I’m already missing you – lol.
I’m a Tesla shareholder and have made a lot of money over the last 18 months.
You called it spot on all those years ago and showed up the “experts”. They have started waking up after losing by shorting Tesla $44 billion.
All the best.
Andrea,
You are being missed a lot! It is unbelievable how forward thinking you had was correct and on spot. I wished we had more people like you. All the best in your life, you deserve it!